Overview and Caveats From my pro-parity perspective, I'm happy to report that I don't believe any team will go undefeated this year, that the gap between the NFC and AFC continues to narrow (but the AFC still prevails), and that nearly half the league arguably has a chance to win this season's championship. I don't spend a lot of time on these predictions - I just scan each team's roster and make a cursory judgment - so, while my track record is pretty good, I always seriously whiff on two or three teams each year. I encourage everyone to tell me how wrong I am about their team.
Most Improved Teams - SEA,INV,CLE,TAM,WAR Best Offenses - BRI,NYH,WSS Best Defenses - ALA,SEA,PST Worst Offenses (will struggle to score points) - BEN,RVC,KUT Worst Defenses (will give up lots of points) - LVR,WSS,SWF
The Grades and Predictions TEAM - QB/RB/WR/OL/DL/LB/DB = TOTAL* (LAST SEASON) PROJECTION Note: grades take positional depth and injuries into consideration. *SCORING SYSTEM A+=11, A=10, A-=9, B+=8, B=7, B-=6, C+=5, C=4, C-=3, D+=2, D=1
NFC LANDRY PST is the perennial favorite but an improved WAR team could cause them trouble. KUT slips a little from last year and BEN won't be a factor until they get their QB situation squared away.
LOMBARDI Kudos to KEN for taking over management of a team that hadn't won a game in three years(!) and winning the division in 2016. That was arguably a coach of the year achievement. It's unlikely that they'll repeat that accomplishment this go round, especially with BRI being the best team in the league this year on paper. I predicted big things for BRI last year and they let me down so count me as skeptical that they'll be able to live up to their position as conference favorite. London treads water and someone will need to explain to me what the heck SWF was thinking leaving millions of dollars in their wallet during the FA Draft.
BROWN Throw a dart at a board with four circles and you'll probably have better luck picking the results in this division than I can deliver. Because of that, I'm calling it even across the board though BAR and BRX might find things difficult with sub-par Qbs. BAY has been quiet for a few years but has been rebuilding into a playoff team and, of course, ATL is the defending league champ. It's possible that all four teams in this division make the playoffs.
AFC MADDEN From worst to first, SEA, the league's most improved team, should win the division, especially after SAL has announced that they are building for the future and will trade away some of their best players (this projection does not take into account those trades). WSS could put up 35 points per game but still lose with their porous defense. RVC will struggle mightily with a tepid offense and no running game.
HALAS The mighty have fallen. Two years away from their undefeated Super Bowl run, LVR fields an impressive offense that won't be able to make up for the league's worst defense. RGG and VAN remain stuck in their annual almost there status. The division's big story is INV, who, after years of struggling, should make the playoffs with the league's second most improved team.
SHULA The toughest division in the league and their projected records take into account that they'll be beating each other up all year. Whoever comes out on top will be the presumptive favorite to go to the Super Bowl. ALA, the league's best team last season, will find it difficult to overcome a resurgent CLE and a NYH team that always is in the championship mix. TAM apparently has decided that this isn't their year and is scheming for the future. This projection does not take into account any trades they have made.
Thanks for doing this again this year Steve. It is also very cool to read.
I think 8-8 is about right for TAM. I have a decent team but my division is an absolute buzzsaw, as you noted. And the NYH-SAL trade really tipped the scales in favor of NYH in the AFC Shula.
Having said that, everyone should remember that SIX teams in each conference make the playoff's this season, and once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen! Good luck to everyone this season!
While Steve cannot account for trades after he makes his annual predictions, overall his predictions were close except for a couple of teams. Here is the comparison:
Team - Actual Wins vs. Predicted Wins:
NFC LANDRY PST - 15 vs. 13 WAR - 9 vs. 7 KUT - 4 vs. 4 BEN - 5 vs. 3
NFC LOMBARDI BRI - 12 vs. 12 LON - 5 vs. 7 KEN - 3 vs. 5 SWF - 9 vs. 5
NFC BROWN BAR - 10 vs. 10 BRX - 6 vs. 10 BAY - 2 vs, 10 ATL - 11 vs. 10
AFC Madden SEA - 10 vs. 10 SAL - 10 vs. 9 WSS - 4 vs. 6 RVC - 3 vs. 4
AFC HALAS INV - 8 vs. 10 RGG - 9 vs. 8 VAN - 9 vs. 7 LVR - 8 vs. 6
AFC SHULA NYH - 14 vs. 12 CLE - 6 vs. 11 ALA - 10 vs. 10 TAM - 10 vs. 8
My best year yet! We can throw out BAY since they traded away their team after my predictions. I seriously whiffed on CLE and BRX but I blame bad coaching :). SWF exceeded my projections because I forgot what a good coach they have. Besides that, I was within two games for everyone.
